{
 "generated": "2026-09-27",
 "evaluation": "historical leave-one-paper/campaign-out; no retraining, no rows removed from headline figures",
 "inputs": {
  "hier_cv_predictions_polymer.csv": "197cda6af46ccf019e012e268729331409bd47d8a65fcd8010de088e00086061",
  "strength_cv_predictions_polymer.csv": "0277e046d103b3e3b46622fdad5eef86e459d90f18522b7b2fe15324e141590d"
 },
 "definitions": {
  "abs_pct_err": "|predicted - measured| / measured x 100, per row",
  "within_pct": "share of rows whose absolute percentage error is at or below the tolerance",
  "log_rmse": "root mean square of ln(predicted/measured); typical_factor = exp(log_rmse)",
  "r2_pooled_raw": "1 - SSE/SST on the raw MPa scale, pooled across papers; dominated by between-paper level differences and extreme rows, reported because it was asked for",
  "spearman": "rank correlation between predicted and measured; 1 means candidates are ordered correctly even if the level is off",
  "quasi_static": "positive strain-rate magnitude at or below 0.1 /s",
  "known_lab": "leave-one-key-out inside each paper: all copies of the target key are excluded; the first usable row per remaining key contributes once; at least three distinct other keys are required; factor = exp(median(ln(measured/predicted))); quasi-static strength factors use positive rates <= 0.1 /s only"
 },
 "models": {
  "modulus_hier": {
   "n": 247,
   "n_groups": 15,
   "median_abs_pct_err": 17.56220397278544,
   "mean_abs_pct_err": 29.14627360835078,
   "quantiles_pct": {
    "p10": 3.75459901463175,
    "p25": 8.586901165711554,
    "p50": 17.56220397278544,
    "p75": 34.1116998653187,
    "p90": 48.83267661471973,
    "p95": 74.39454205419172
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   "max_pct": 465.57706855483013,
   "within_pct": {
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    "20": 0.5303643724696356,
    "25": 0.6072874493927125,
    "50": 0.9109311740890689
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   "rows_over_100_pct": 9,
   "log_rmse": 0.3825641651975587,
   "typical_factor": 1.466038940017878,
   "median_log_ratio": -0.13641597680104653,
   "r2_pooled_raw": -0.09832181109153959,
   "spearman_pooled": 0.4620659365002246,
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     75,
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     100,
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     150,
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     200,
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    [
     300,
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    [
     500,
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  },
  "modulus_mt": {
   "n": 247,
   "n_groups": 15,
   "median_abs_pct_err": 49.546504093444774,
   "mean_abs_pct_err": 75.88858427981451,
   "quantiles_pct": {
    "p10": 11.141598353675409,
    "p25": 22.519819653707856,
    "p50": 49.546504093444774,
    "p75": 99.13842620747064,
    "p90": 205.50546651625558,
    "p95": 235.59708134832476
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   "max_pct": 301.4792184721256,
   "within_pct": {
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    "20": 0.22672064777327935,
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    "50": 0.5141700404858299
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   "rows_over_100_pct": 56,
   "log_rmse": 0.6113413633175568,
   "typical_factor": 1.8429017423921952,
   "median_log_ratio": 0.4024372226424205,
   "r2_pooled_raw": -3.019143416906787,
   "spearman_pooled": 0.22769730156503815,
   "cdf": [
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     300,
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  },
  "strength_all": {
   "n": 581,
   "n_groups": 23,
   "median_abs_pct_err": 17.403974668111672,
   "mean_abs_pct_err": 37.00142134765272,
   "quantiles_pct": {
    "p10": 3.482269336036649,
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    "p50": 17.403974668111672,
    "p75": 35.2878045139358,
    "p90": 54.519360990329766,
    "p95": 76.0590958465421
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   "max_pct": 6809.286853702241,
   "within_pct": {
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    "25": 0.6247848537005164,
    "50": 0.8795180722891566
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   "rows_over_100_pct": 20,
   "log_rmse": 0.42026565554154777,
   "typical_factor": 1.5223659268492575,
   "median_log_ratio": -0.015796547959619028,
   "r2_pooled_raw": 0.2850886382090472,
   "spearman_pooled": 0.6813245690994162,
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  "strength_quasi_static": {
   "n": 325,
   "n_groups": 23,
   "median_abs_pct_err": 10.948077036612094,
   "mean_abs_pct_err": 36.06194305737548,
   "quantiles_pct": {
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    "p75": 20.5256197789052,
    "p90": 30.844352626016473,
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   "max_pct": 6809.286853702241,
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   "rows_over_100_pct": 2,
   "log_rmse": 0.40602298766480843,
   "typical_factor": 1.500837052800579,
   "median_log_ratio": -0.035242552534340894,
   "r2_pooled_raw": 0.640112098524183,
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  "strength_dynamic": {
   "n": 256,
   "n_groups": 7,
   "median_abs_pct_err": 33.642864303938694,
   "mean_abs_pct_err": 38.194118395856265,
   "quantiles_pct": {
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   "max_pct": 140.20198793333498,
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   "rows_over_100_pct": 18,
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   ]
  }
 },
 "known_lab": {
  "method_version": "unique-fit-keys-v2",
  "method": "leave-one-key-out inside each paper: all copies of the target key are excluded; the first usable row per remaining key contributes once; at least three distinct other keys are required; factor = exp(median(ln(measured/predicted))); quasi-static strength factors use positive rates <= 0.1 /s only",
  "limitations": "Exploratory within-paper evaluation. Original eligible evaluation rows keep their original weights, including matching keys; they are not independent specimens. Modulus keys are (E_true, E_hier), strength keys are (vf, rho_p, rate, S_true), scoped to the paper. These proxies do not establish independent batches or the browser's three-composition requirement. The browser uses the same estimator but additional matrix-family/composition and input screens. All-rate strength is a separate diagnostic, not the browser's quasi-static factor.",
  "modulus": {
   "n": 242,
   "gp_alone": {
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    "n_groups": null,
    "median_abs_pct_err": 17.324658461967193,
    "mean_abs_pct_err": 27.105168617251454,
    "quantiles_pct": {
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     "p75": 32.62621749159938,
     "p90": 47.84994481699516,
     "p95": 63.74369989599587
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    "rows_over_100_pct": 8,
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    "typical_factor": 1.4435821939328002,
    "median_log_ratio": -0.15168714684368018,
    "r2_pooled_raw": 0.051269218835870656,
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   "gp_plus_lab": {
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    "median_abs_pct_err": 12.66486065784434,
    "mean_abs_pct_err": 21.23090821066306,
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   "mt_alone": {
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   "mt_plus_lab": {
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   "n": 309,
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 "publication_scope": "aggregate_only",
 "record_details": "Individual observations, source-group tables and parity points remain in the private evidence archive."
}